Gold approaches another record as election race, Fed rate cuts come into focus

Gold rallied toward a fresh record high as investors turned their attention to the upcoming US election, with polls forecasting a razor-thin contest with less than three weeks to go.

The precious metal is one of the strongest performing commodities in 2024, setting successive records thanks to its appeal as a safe haven asset and rapacious central-bank buying. Now, it’s finding fresh support as investors across financial markets reposition their portfolios in response to uncertainty over the outcome of the US presidential race.

The dollar rallied on Tuesday after Republican candidate Donald Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg News that he would raise tariffs sharply, cut taxes and regulation, and seek more direct consultation with the US Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, in options markets, traders are more focused on the Fed’s interest-rate cuts and the health of the US economy, market veterans say.

“We anticipate uncertainty and volatility to rise until the next US administration is settled,” UBS Group AG analysts led by Mark Haefele, the bank’s global wealth management chief investment officer, said in an emailed note. They advised that “gold and oil can be effective portfolio hedges” in a volatile trading environment.

The prevailing view of Wall Street economists is that Trump’s trade policies will ultimately support the dollar, since import tariffs would stem the currency’s flow overseas and potentially drive up inflation and interest rates. A prolonged trade war also stands to weigh on global risk sentiment, further supporting the haven greenback.

Such a scenario could create crosswinds for gold. The asset tends to do well in an inflationary environment and periods of geopolitical turmoil, but can suffer when the dollar is strong and interest rates are high. 

Over the past year, elevated Fed rates have done little to slow gold’s breakneck ascent to consecutive record highs, and for now many investors are betting that the pivot to looser monetary policy — and an accompanying slowdown in US economic growth — will help fuel further gains.

Gold is expected to climb to record highs over the next year, according to a survey of the bullion industry at a major annual gathering. Delegates at the London Bullion Market Association event in Miami expect the precious metal to rise to $2,917.40 an ounce by late October next year, about 10% above current levels.

Spot gold was 0.6% higher at $2,679.21 an ounce as of 11:05 a.m. in London, nearing the record of $2,685.58 set last month. Prices are up about 30% so far this year. 

All precious metals were higher, with silver pacing gains with a 1.3% rise. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady near a two-month high.