Blackstone's Schwartzman says recession will be avoided

by Lisa Du and Takako Taniguchi

Blackstone Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman said the US is likely to avoid a recession regardless of who wins the presidential election, as both candidates have policy proposals that appeal to growth.

“I don’t see a recession risk because the economy is pretty strong and both of the candidates keep mentioning a lot of stimulative policies,” the billionaire private equity chief said Wednesday in an interview in Tokyo. “But time will tell as to what anybody actually will be able or want to do.”

The upcoming US election, just two weeks away, is set to be one of the most impactful events for global markets and economies this year going into next. Schwarzman said in May that he will raise money for Donald Trump’s campaign, reversing his earlier call for a “new generation” of Republican leaders. 

Policies the candidates have put forth — like Trump’s proposed tariffs and Kamala Harris’s bid to boost affordable housing — would be consequential for businesses including Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager. 

Schwarzman, 77, said historically Democrats have taken a more “vigorous approach” to regulation, and that could impact some buying and selling for the private equity industry. Many policy proposals around the economy and taxes would be up to Congress to enact and not the President, he added. 

“I think it’s impossible at this point to predict what either of them will actually do,” he said. “Since they keep coming out with new announcements almost every day to counter what the other one is doing.”

In May, when Schwarzman said he was supporting Trump, he cited his concern that US economic, immigration and foreign policies were going in the “wrong direction.” 

Schwarzman said he sees an improving environment for making deals and exiting investments as interest rates are likely to continue to fall in the US.

“It’s really about interest rates and economic growth,” he said. “Interest rates will continue to go down and that’ll provide an impetus of more transactions both on the buy and the sell.”

Dealmaking will likely continue to be robust in Japan, India and Australia — markets where Blackstone have been active this past year, Schwarzman said. While Europe is likely to see the lowest economic growth among developed nations, that could still present opportunities, he added.

Last week, Blackstone reported an increase in quarterly earnings that also showed credit edged out real estate as its biggest business by assets.

In a separate interview, Gilles Dellaert, Blackstone’s global head of credit and insurance, said the private credit industry is still at the beginning of expansion. “We’re in the very early days,” Dellaert said on Bloomberg Television.

JAPAN EXPANSION

Schwarzman was in Tokyo for the second time this year to meet with investors as Japan becomes a more important market for deals and fundraising at Blackstone, which he co-founded in 1985 and now has $1.1 trillion in assets under management. 

Blackstone will introduce at least three new products in 2025 for individual investors in Japan, including one tied to infrastructure, Schwarzman said. There will also be a “significant increase” in headcount in the country, he said, without giving a number.

Japan’s wealthy have become a strong source of fundraising for Blackstone, as the government encourages people to invest more of their cash savings, the value of which is eroding as inflation takes hold in the country. The firm has publicly offered funds in Japan focused on private equity, real estate and private credit. The PE fund has raised about $1.4 billion from individuals since launching earlier this year, according to figures from the Japan Securities Dealers Association.

Blackstone expects to make about $20 billion in real estate and corporate investments in Japan during the next three years, President Jon Gray said in September. 

Global private equity firms have increasingly turned to Japan for investment, attracted by cheap financing, a weak currency and a large pool of undervalued companies to target. Although the Bank of Japan exited its negative interest-rate policy this year, investors have said that borrowing costs remain low and attractive in the country. 

“Japan has become one of the most interesting destinations for people in the financial world,” Schwarzman said. “There’s a lot of reasons to be increasing our focus here and our number of people as well.” 

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