Bullish equities investors may be best to sell, BofA strategist says

Investors are getting so bullish that it might be time to sell global stocks, according to an investor survey by Bank of America Corp.

Allocations to stocks surged, while bond exposure sank and cash levels in global portfolios fell to 3.9% in October from 4.2% last month, triggering a “sell signal” on global equities, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote on Tuesday. 

The October survey showed “the biggest jump in investor optimism since June 2020 on Federal Reserve cuts, China stimulus, soft landing,” Hartnett and his team wrote. Equity allocations nearly tripled from last month, to a net 31% overweight. Bond allocations saw a record swing to a net 15% underweight. 

Since 2011, there have been 11 similar sell signals, with global equities dropping 2.5% over one month on average and 0.8% in the three months following the trigger. “Froth is on the rise” but BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator is still below the “big sell signal” of 8, the team said.

Global stocks have extended their bull trend after a bout of volatility in early September, spurred by central bank interest-rate cuts, a resilient economy and fiscal and monetary stimulus in China. The MSCI All-Country World Index hit a record high on Monday, driven by strength in US stocks. 

The third-quarter earnings season is also off to a good start in the US, with major banks reassuring the market last week. The S&P 500 extended a five-week gain on Monday to record its 46th all-time closing high for the year. 

The optimism was reflected in a big rotation among survey respondents into emerging market, discretionary and industrials stocks, and out of defensive sectors such as staples and utilities. The biggest winners from China stimulus are emerging-market stocks and commodities, while the biggest losers are government bonds and Japanese equities, the survey showed.

Other highlights from the survey, which was conducted between Oct. 4 and Oct. 10 and canvassed 195 participants with $503 billion in assets:

• About a third of investors are set to increase hedging pre-US election, with conviction that a “sweep” would trigger a surge in bond yields and the US dollar while hitting the S&P 500
• Growth expectations saw their fifth-largest jump on record, with 76% of investors now expecting a soft landing, while just 8% predict a hard landing.
• Investors expect the Fed to cut rates by another 160 basis points on average over the next 12 months
• Most crowded trades: long Magnificent 7 (43%), long gold (17%), long China stocks (14%)
• Biggest tail risks: geopolitical conflict (33%), accelerating inflation (26%), US recession (19%), US election “sweep” (14%) and systemic credit event (8%)