"It's going to be a tough year for advisers. They will experience real pressure in profitability and in attracting clients, but I think we will see that the strong firms will emerge even stronger, while some of the weaker firms will merge."
MARK TIBERGIEN
Chief executive officer
Pershing Advisor Solutions LLC
Jersey City, N.J.
General outlook:
"It's going to be a tough year for advisers," Mr. Tibergien said. "They will experience real pressure in profitability and in attracting clients, but I think we will see that the strong firms will emerge even stronger, while some of the weaker firms will merge."
Mr. Tibergien doesn't expect any marked decrease in the total number of registered investment advisory firms, largely because firms established by former wirehouse brokers will offset losses due to consolidations (and he expects more mergers than acquisitions, because cash and stock currency is so scarce).
He expects about one-third of breakaway brokers to affiliate with an independent broker-dealer or RIA, one-third to affiliate with another wirehouse and a third to set up a new RIA shop.
Next big trend:
What will change markedly is the long-term trend toward asset growth, Mr. Tibergien said. Assets under management, which grew at a compound annual rate of about 22% from 2002 through the end of 2007 at RIA firms, might have fallen by as much as 25% to 30% in 2008, he estimated.
Biggest concern:
The ability of advisers to manage both emotionally and financially through what will likely be "the worst economic experience they'll ever have," Mr. Tibergien said.
Reading, watching and listening to:
Book: "The Civil War as a Theological Crisis" by Mark A. Noll (University of North Carolina Press, 2006).
Newspapers: The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Time and Newsweek.
TV: "Mad Men."
Movie: "Little Miss Sunshine."
