Rapid economic recovery isn't likely during 2009, and American investors will have to grapple with a major crisis of confidence.
TOM POTTS
President-elect, 2009
Financial Planning Association
Denver, Colo.
Professor of finance
Baylor University
Waco, Texas
Forecast:
A rapid economic recovery isn't likely during 2009, and American investors will have to grapple with a major crisis of confidence, Mr. Potts said.
"People are looking at the bailout process as being flawed. The fear is that maybe the politics will get into the bailout program and the economy will be pushed back," he said.
However, bipartisan solutions to the economic crisis and a strong economic team to advise President-elect Barack Obama, including former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, could lift investors' spirits, he said.
"If politics can be laid aside in times of national emergencies, and you have both sides of the aisle working together, I think that could be a positive sign."
The 2009 finish line:
The Dow: up 20%.
The Nasdaq: up 15%.
The S&P 500: up 20%.
Tip sheet:
Favorite investment: The Vanguard Pacific ETF (VPL).
Favorite sectors: Consumer non-durables and Asian production.
Next big thing: "There is money waiting to get back into the market, so it's all about consumer and investor confidence."
Biggest concern: Consumers and corporations being overleveraged.
Reading, watching, listening to:
Book: "What Color is Your Parachute? For Retirement: Planning Now for the Life You Want" by Richard Nelson Bolles and John E. Nelson (Ten Speed Press, 2007).
Newspapers: The Wall Street Journal, Journal of Financial Planning, InvestmentNews
TV: CNN, CBS and Fox.
Radio: Rush Limbaugh and "The Mark Davis Show."
Websites: Bloomberg.com
