by Jan-Patrick Barnert
A year-end rally will start this week and push the S&P 500 Index about 4% higher to 6,200 points, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader Scott Rubner.
Retail euphoria is accelerating across equities and crypto, just as stocks enter their best seasonal trading pattern. Corporate demand for buybacks is also increasing, adding to the reasons why the rally could start in the coming days, Rubner said in a note to clients on Friday.
“I don’t think that many will be eating turkey on Thursday and then shorting the S&P,” he wrote.
The consolidation phase seen all of last week is typical, he added. US equities saw the largest three-month inflows since 2021 and in November potentially the largest monthly additions on record, Rubner wrote.
The S&P 500 has gained 3.2% since the Nov. 5 presidential vote, while the Russell 2000 Index has jumped 6.5%. In an election year, the rally typically extends into January and only fades away shortly before the inauguration day, according to Rubner.
“Historically, good years tend to follow more good years for US equities, and January is when capital gets deployed from the largest asset base,” he said. “I placed my order for an SPX 7K hat.”
Copyright Bloomberg News
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