A report from UCLA says the U.S. will escape recession in 2008, but most polled by Bloomberg aren't buying it.
Despite turbulence in the energy, housing and stock markets, the UCLA Anderson Forecast says the U.S. will escape recession in 2008, but Americans polled by Bloomberg don’t buy it.
UCLA’s Anderson forecast defines recession as two consecutive quarter declines in real Gross Domestic Product.
The economic forecast out of California said that job cuts and the weak dollar will actually help the U.S., while a decline in consumer spending will more affect the countries exporting the goods.
However, Americans have opted for a more pessimistic economic outlook.
A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of 1,467 adults showed that all of the factors UCLA’s forecast predict will improve the economy left almost three-quarters of respondents pessimistic about the economy’s future.
Fully 71% of those polled from Nov. 30 to Dec. 3 anticipate a recession, while only 23% don’t, according to the Bloomberg poll.
More than half of the respondents, 56%, say the economy is doing badly, and two-thirds say the nation is seriously on the wrong track.
The UCLA forecast’s report said that because so many jobs have been cut, it is unlikely another rash of cuts will occur next year.
It also said that the weak dollar will encourage other countries to import from the U.S., helping the local exports.
The forecast also predicts that the continuing economic damage from the summer’s catastrophic housing market deterioration will be over at the end of next year.
