Trump tariffs on Canada will harm US economy, warns Goldman

by Yongchang Chin and Weilun Soon

US consumers face “significant consequences” from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., with the bank casting doubt over its implementation.

The 25% levy on all products from Canada proposed by Trump would likely raise the price of fuels in the US, Daan Struyven, the head of commodities research for Goldman, said during a roundtable interview. The tactic is reminiscent of the first Trump term and could be a negotiating tool, he added. 

Tariffs “could in theory lead to some pretty significant consequences for three groups of people: US consumers, US refiners, and Canadian producers,” he said on Wednesday. “Given the focus from Trump to lower energy costs, we think Canada tariffs are somewhat unlikely.”

The US imports almost 4 million barrels of Canadian crude a day, which allows American producers to export more of their own oil. The chief executive officer of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said tariffs would result in higher gasoline and energy costs for US consumers.

Other points from the briefing include:

• Iranian oil flows are at risk from tightening of sanctions
• OPEC appears to be defending a price floor of $70 a barrel
• OECD inventories are 4% lower than historical average levels
• China and the US could continue to refill their strategic stockpiles
• Goldman reiterated its 2025 Brent oil forecast of $76 a barrel

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