US CPI awaited; it may mean a Fed pause

by Matthew Boesler

Forecasters expect a monthly report on US consumer prices to show a third month of firm underlying inflation, keeping the pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the coming months up for debate.

The so-called core consumer price index that excludes food and energy is seen rising 0.3% in October while the overall index advanced 0.2%, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The CPI report is scheduled to be published Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Such readings would keep Fed officials uncertain as to whether they should press on with rate cuts at their next policy meeting in December, following a half-point reduction in September and a quarter-point cut last week. Investors have marked down the chances of a December reduction to about 60%, from around 80% prior to last week’s presidential election.

“October’s US CPI inflation data may dent expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December,” Bloomberg economist Scott Johnson said Tuesday in a note. “A Bloomberg Economics nowcast flags upside risk to consensus expectations for the headline monthly measure, while core inflation looks set to stay relatively high.”

Here are the key components to watch in the report:

RENTS

Owners’ equivalent rent, as the largest single component of the CPI, is important in setting the underlying trend for the index. OER inflation accelerated in July and August — leading to fears that a deceleration in the first half of the year would be upended — before moderating again in September.

Morgan Stanley economists led by Diego Anzoategui see the potential for another slight bump in the October report before a resumption of the downward trend.

“September’s OER was likely downward biased by seasonal factors and we don’t expect a similar bias this print,” Anzoategui and his colleagues wrote in a Nov. 8 preview of the report. “However, new leases and renewals inflation, leading indicators in our models, remain weaker than housing CPI and thus point to a sustained deceleration ahead.”

HOTEL RATES

Even if rental inflation holds steady, shelter prices are set to get a boost from the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which could have contributed to a substantial increase in the lodging away from home category of the index as those in the path of the storms fled to hotels elsewhere.

Analysts also flagged the seasonal adjustment the BLS applies to that line item — to account for slower business following peak summer travel — which means unadjusted prices would have to drop substantially to register a decrease in the seasonally-adjusted reading.

“We forecast an increase in lodging-away-from-home prices based on high-frequency data on average room rates,” Barclays economists Pooja Sriram and Marc Giannoni said in a Nov. 7 note. “Weekly reports from Costar indicate higher demand and occupancy in the Southeast in October on account of displacement from hurricanes, as well as keeping in mind the daunting seasonal factor for October.”

USED CARS

The hurricanes also may have boosted prices for used cars, one of the most important categories in the goods basket of the index. Deflation in that category helped pull overall core goods prices lower in 14 of the last 16 months. Core goods prices excluding used cars have a more mixed track record, declining in only 9 of the last 16 months.

“The recent rebound in auction prices for used cars point to what could be the largest monthly gain in the CPI for used vehicles in about a year,” Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner said in a Nov. 7 preview of the report.

“We still think that the benefits of smoother supply chains and cooler demand have yet to fully run their course, but the deflationary impulses from new and used cars in particular may ebb through the final months of the year — especially as the devastation of Hurricanes Helene and Milton boosts demand for replacement vehicles and parts,” they wrote.

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