Trump's tariffs and tax agenda poses risk for Social Security benefits, warns watchdog

Donald Trump’s agenda for a second presidential term would drive Social Security to insolvency three years earlier and eventually slash benefits by nearly a third, a nonpartisan budget watchdog group estimated Monday.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated Trump’s plans for massive deportations, tariffs and tax cuts would drain the program’s trust fund by 2031 and lead to a 33% cut in benefits by 2035 unless Congress steps in to shore up the program— a far bigger cut than the 23% shortfall after a decade projected under current law.

“The trust funds would be insolvent only six years after the next president takes office instead of nine,” the group wrote.

While Trump and Kamala Harris have both pledged to protect Social Security benefits, they will be slashed automatically without a change in law. 

The group cited Trump’s proposals to deport unauthorized immigrants who now pay into Social Security, end taxes on overtime and tips, and end taxation of Social Security benefits. All would shrink revenue for the trust fund, they said. And they said his proposals for large new tariffs would either increase inflation and cost-of-living adjustments or reduce taxable payroll.

While Trump has substantial presidential authority to deport unauthorized immigrants and impose tariffs, any tax changes require congressional approval.

The group projected the plans would deplete Social Security’s finances by $2.3 trillion over a decade.

Joseph Costello, a spokesman for the Harris campaign, cited the report and called Trump’s agenda “an imminent threat to Social Security.”

Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, dismissed the report and argued that unauthorized immigrants will cause Social Security to collapse if they are allowed to stay in the US.

“By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for generations to come,” she said.

The watchdog group said in its analysis that it’s unlikely that Trump would be able to cover the shortfall with more oil and gas drilling and faster growth.